Buy: 407.34 (Bitfinex) Stop-loss: 402 Profit Take: 412; 417; 424;
Sell: 396 SL: 401 PT: 372; 355; 335
Trading fiat scamcoins?
Somewhat strong: Usd, Gbp, Aud
Weakest: Eur, Jpy
So you want to sell Eur/Usd, Eur/Aud and buy Gbp/Jpy, Usd/Jpy, maybe Aud/Jpy
Indices:
DAX looks a bit bullish right now, but in the choppy zone up to 10000.
DJ also somewhat bullish.
Happy and profitable new year folks and let’s get straight back to work! The USD remains strong across the board and the BTC/USD pair is not an exception. The USD index can attack 100 very easily, probably 110 and 115 maybe.
Unless this resistance level is reached followed by appropriate price action (meaning clear selling) I have no reason to be bullish on BTC or any other asset traded against the dollar. And that could occur in a weeks, months… Of course until some sudden event happens that could send the mother of all fiat currencies back down to trash where it belongs.
The price has reached the $260 support zone (former resistance and maximum high of April 2013. Wow, do you remember those days? Only some 20 months ago and it does sound like a looong history) that can be broken fairly easily.
Down there lies stronger resistance at about $160 that should successfuly face of any selling attack at least on a longterm timeframe charts. But if the USD index breaks above 120 only bitcoin god knows what will happen then…
Sell: 264 Stop-loss: 290 Profit Take: 254; 234; 224
Buy: 291 SL: 276 PT: 300; 310
After a calm comes a storm and vice-versa. The price of BTC/USD pair oscillated around the $100 zone for three weeks and it was quite hard to book some decent profit with this weekly strategy.
As with all other tradable instruments, at these times the most important is to preserve your capital, do not lose much and wait for a next big move. And the one came last week.
Is that down move finished now? I don’t know. But I doubt it. The speed and volume of the sell-off would suggest even lower levels are on the way soon. The current down leg should attack $50 zone first before any possible bounce off or continuing sell-off.
With that said let’s lay out this week’s trading plan (Bitstamp chart):
Sell point: 63.00 SL: 70.00 Profit target: 53.00
Buy point: 73.00 SL: 68.00 Profit targets: 79.00, 82.00
My bias is still down, so I don’t want to open a long position before the market attacks $50 zone first.
What a bloody choppy week that was! My assumption on a price rising didn’t come true and it seems the $130 level is at least as important barrier as the $120 (based on the bitstampUSD chart). The only bright side of a low volatility period is that a nice moves come after that. Maybe such a one just started out today. After two failed breaks through $130 there are strong odds the price will come down (well, it has come down nicely already, but there’s more potential).
Some more supportive factors: 1. The bullish structure with the base point above 120 was destroyed today 2. The significant turning point at $119 is about to be broken (well, it was, but just a spikes, it needs to hold below).
A clear breaking of the $119 strenghtens downward pressure and the price can attack $110 or $100 very quickly.
So with that in mind the coming week’s points are very easy to setup:
Sell immediately or anywhere up to $128. That level is the stop-loss also. The price action should get some steam below $119 and tank down to $110 at least, maybe $106 or $103.
There is no reason even to think about the buy now unless the price gets clearly above 130. In that case the stop-loss is at $127 and profit target at $140. But I really doubt BTC will get there this week.
OK, I must admit it. Bitcoin keeps surprising me as a trader. The last time I wrote here about having a pause in BTC/USD trading (as would have traded it for years, yeah? 🙂 ) and expecting some weeks or months of low volatility practically disabling profitable trading. It looks like I was wrong. Yes, the volatility has decreased comparing to the crazy weeks before, but it is still possible to book some good pips in.
So what’s the current story? Looking at the Bitstamp USD chart the price has recently broken an important turning point at $120 and heading to another at $150. So this can be the target in the next days maybe weeks depending on the upmove strength. As this climb isn’t very much persuasive for me it is necessary to look carefully downstairs also. And there is strong trendline support now around $100. But for the market to attack this level I don’t know what kind of serious event would have to occur for it to come down there. Especially when you consider the recent Dwolla/Mt.Gox problem, that was quite a huge negative story and the price is up. That is telling me something. And maybe BTC just doesn’t give a fuck of this (or any) “news”.
OK, when you haven’t bought in the recent hours then do it as soon as possible. As said above my buy target (PT2) is $150, but first it should cut through $140 (PT1). The stop-loss set up at $127.50. And that is also the sell-point with the stop-loss at $130.50. If triggered my first profit target is $124 and the second at $123 (let’s be careful here, the trend is up). Good luck!
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