Profit target - BITCOIN PIT

Bitcoin Bears In Charge Clearly. Weekly Trades (28)

After a calm comes a storm and vice-versa. The price of BTC/USD pair oscillated around the $100 zone for three weeks and it was quite hard to book some decent profit with this weekly strategy.

As with all other tradable instruments, at these times the most important is to preserve your capital, do not lose much and wait for a next big move. And the one came last week.

Is that down move finished now? I don’t know. But I doubt it. The speed and volume of the sell-off would suggest even lower levels are on the way soon. The current down leg should attack $50 zone first before any possible bounce off or continuing sell-off.

Bitcoin Trading Plan

With that said let’s lay out this week’s trading plan (Bitstamp chart):

Sell point: 63.00 SL: 70.00 Profit target: 53.00
Buy point: 73.00 SL: 68.00 Profit targets: 79.00, 82.00

My bias is still down, so I don’t want to open a long position before the market attacks $50 zone first.

Seeeellll! Nooowww! Weekly trades (23)

What a bloody choppy week that was! My assumption on a price rising didn’t come true and it seems the $130 level is at least as important barrier as the $120 (based on the bitstampUSD chart). The only bright side of a low volatility period is that a nice moves come after that. Maybe such a one just started out today. After two failed breaks through $130 there are strong odds the price will come down (well, it has come down nicely already, but there’s more potential).

Some more supportive factors: 1. The bullish structure with the base point above 120 was destroyed today 2. The significant turning point at $119 is about to be broken (well, it was, but just a spikes, it needs to hold below).
A clear breaking of the $119 strenghtens downward pressure and the price can attack $110 or $100 very quickly.

So with that in mind the coming week’s points are very easy to setup:
Sell immediately or anywhere up to $128. That level is the stop-loss also. The price action should get some steam below $119 and tank down to $110 at least, maybe $106 or $103.
There is no reason even to think about the buy now unless the price gets clearly above 130. In that case the stop-loss is at $127 and profit target at $140. But I really doubt BTC will get there this week.

Buuuyyy! Weekly Trades (22)

OK, I must admit it. Bitcoin keeps surprising me as a trader. The last time I wrote here about having a pause in BTC/USD trading (as would have traded it for years, yeah? 🙂 ) and expecting some weeks or months of low volatility practically disabling profitable trading. It looks like I was wrong. Yes, the volatility has decreased comparing to the crazy weeks before, but it is still possible to book some good pips in.

So what’s the current story? Looking at the Bitstamp USD chart the price has recently broken an important turning point at $120 and heading to another at $150. So this can be the target in the next days maybe weeks depending on the upmove strength. As this climb isn’t very much persuasive for me it is necessary to look carefully downstairs also. And there is strong trendline support now around $100. But for the market to attack this level I don’t know what kind of serious event would have to occur for it to come down there. Especially when you consider the recent Dwolla/Mt.Gox problem, that was quite a huge negative story and the price is up. That is telling me something. And maybe BTC just doesn’t give a fuck of this (or any) “news”.

OK, when you haven’t bought in the recent hours then do it as soon as possible. As said above my buy target (PT2) is $150, but first it should cut through $140 (PT1). The stop-loss set up at $127.50. And that is also the sell-point with the stop-loss at $130.50. If triggered my first profit target is $124 and the second at $123 (let’s be careful here, the trend is up). Good luck!

Weekly Trades (19)

An overall situation in the BTCUSD market is a quite tricky right now. It is a long term range trading between a high of 260 USD and low at 50 USD. The price broke down into a medium-term bear market last week, but weekend recovery suggests we can see some small up move again before another downfall leg later. You know that saying ‘what can’t go up must come down’…

Here are my points for this week:

Buy 119.40 SL 114.00 PT1: 124.80 PT2: 135.00 PT3: 146.00
Sell 106.70 SL 115.30 PT1: 93.00 PT2: 81.00 PT3: 71.00 PT4: 60.00

Summing up the last week trading results: +22%

Buy PT1: +5%
Sell PT1: +4%, PT2: +12%, PT3: +17%

If you let a profit run with the falling market and would close on Friday afternoon (which I would recommend for at latest), you could book even 33% return (supposing 85 USD target for example) only for that one sell off.
Also bear in mind that buy and sell points I give out must be clearly broken on the chart, a spike candle (I watch 15 min. or 200 tick chart for an entry) is not enough, market has to clearly close above (below) this point. That’s why setting up a pending orders and leave computer is comfortable, but not always leading to a successful entry.

Weekly Trades (18)

It’s Sunday again and that means the time to look at the chart and plan possible trades for the coming week. The price has been sitting around the 30’s level for a few days, what’s more interesting there were three inside daily candles so a possible break out could bring a somewhat stronger move, especially when you realize it is a start of a new week.

The market is currently at a quite significant point, which should imply some nice price action ahead. A break above could have attack at least the last week’s maximum. However there’s one thing worrying me: similar break above happened last week and it couldn’t reach even my first profit target. So I’m cautious now. On the other side after a possible failed break above 136 we could see a strong sell-off down to 105 at least.
With that said let’s set up the buy and sell points (Mt.Gox chart).
Buy 137.00, SL 130.90, PT1 144.50 PT2 160 PT3 175
Sell 127.40, SL 134, PT1 122.00 PT2 112 PT3 106

A look back at the last week’s trades:
The buy order was triggered, but hadn’t reached any of the targets. However, even when the market wasn’t being marching higher as steeply as in the previous weeks, you could book a nice profit of more than 20% when closing around the max. Of course, such a timely exit would had been not according to my strategy, but hey, taking profits is a more individual thing than opening a position. I personally like to leave the market some space for moving up or down even with a chance of ending at B/E or a loss. That was the last week’s case (BE).