Tag: Bitcoin

Is Bitcoin Volatility Dead For The Moment?

I don’t want to be a fortuneteller, but it seems the BTC/USD price is dead for trading at the moment. The low volatility is one of trader’s biggest enemies, because market sits sticking up to a level and not moving clearly in any direction. When you are a short-term trader that means shutting down the chart, maybe PC and doing something more useful where you don’t lose money.

It’s hard to tell for how long the market can stay in this terrible condition (Well, not for merchants. Here you go, you ‘…but BTC is too volatile’ moaners), but Bitcoin and its participants has clearly found a new equilibrium after the super ultra volatile period in recent weeks. That’s how every market works. A calm time follows a volatile period. The longer the pause moment lasts the steeper next move will be. But no one knows when that next phase will come.

btcchart

Looking at the historical price chart the market seems to be in a similar state as after the abrupt peak of 2011 when a downward correction lasted for a half a year followed by a year-long consolidation period before another leg up. I don’t say it should be the same this time. Not at all. As the recent rise wasn’t so steep as two years ago, I think there won’t be such a down-pressure and we may just see the price oscillating around 100 USD. And then one day starting to accelerate towards 1000 USD. When that day will come I dont know. But will watch out and be ready.

It’s A War! Debt money against free money

AF Bitcoins: … “Imagine you could use the futures market to smash down precious metals, oh wait you can. But those dam pesky bitcoins how do you smash them down? You could try a big pump n dump, make it look like it peaked and hope enthusiasm will disappear, like described in my fake tops post. Damn and blast but the price is coming back already.

You could also orchestrate some Ddos attacks on the biggest exchanges. What about also Ddos’ing the largest market place that uses bitcoins too? Maybe that will cause the price to fall. Silk Road has been down for a few days now. Under attack. But by whom?

Its war! On one side we have debt money brought to you by our central planning politicians and bankers, and on the side of truth, liberty and freedom we have precious metals and bitcoins.”

Weekly Trades (18)

It’s Sunday again and that means the time to look at the chart and plan possible trades for the coming week. The price has been sitting around the 30’s level for a few days, what’s more interesting there were three inside daily candles so a possible break out could bring a somewhat stronger move, especially when you realize it is a start of a new week.

mtgoxUSD 1 day #2 41392.8349

The market is currently at a quite significant point, which should imply some nice price action ahead. A break above could have attack at least the last week’s maximum. However there’s one thing worrying me: similar break above happened last week and it couldn’t reach even my first profit target. So I’m cautious now. On the other side after a possible failed break above 136 we could see a strong sell-off down to 105 at least.
With that said let’s set up the buy and sell points (Mt.Gox chart).
Buy  137.00, SL 130.90,  PT1 144.50   PT2 160   PT3 175
Sell 127.40, SL 134,  PT1 122.00   PT2 112   PT3 106

A look back at the last week’s trades:
The buy order was triggered, but hadn’t reached any of the targets. However, even when the market wasn’t being marching higher as steeply as in the previous weeks, you could book a nice profit of more than 20% when closing around the max. Of course, such a timely exit would had been not according to my strategy, but hey, taking profits is a more individual thing than opening a position. I personally like to leave the market some space for moving up or down even with a chance of ending at B/E or a loss. That was the last week’s case (BE).

You sold Bitcoin yesterday? I’m so sorry

Heh. Bitcoin showed its power again yesterday. After huge gains in the last days finally a calm-down sell-off came in. The 250 $ level is too strong for an easy, unproblematic break through.

I hope those of you trading short-term strategy have booked profits at one of my weekly targets. And the last one was right at 250. If you are a long-term trader or investor and you’ve got scared by this “whatever fucking irrelevant reason” dump, I’m so sorry. Especially when you didn’t buy back at a lower price. But you deserve it if you are watching every intraday price move and overlook a big picture.

And the big picture says we are still in the bull market. Price corrections between 30 – 60% are perfectly in line with the trend.