UASF/Segwit – Preferred Technical Solution for Bitcoin

Decision(s) about technological changes are ahead of Bitcoin in the next days. Segwit, Segwit2x, UASF, hardfork – all more or less probable solutions come into play, including two separate chains of Bitcoin.

Bitcoinpit approached a few people engaged in providing crypto technology and services with questions regarding current situation, possible scenarios, and their preferred solution.

Are you keeping an eye on current bitcoin code development?

Manfred Karrer (founder of decentralized P2P exchange Bisq, former Bitsquare): Yes, of course. It is fundamental specially regarding the risks of a chain split if SegWit would not get activated before 1.8.

Marián Jančuška (operator of the 1st BTC ATM in Slovakia and Europe Mojbitcoin.sk): I’m not a developer myself, so I’m trying to identify trustworthy and unbiased individuals with an ability to assess the quality of the code. I then make decisions based on their opinions.

Juraj Bednár (hacker, entrepreneur and co-founder of Paralelni Polis): A little bit. What I see as a problem is that a lot of people think about Bitcoin in terms of code and technical issues. But Bitcoin is a social institution, it is a network of people who transfer value.

The main problem is that the value of the network depends on the number
of users (roughly n^2). What the geeks don’t get is that most people don’t care about Segwit, block size or anything like that. They care about transaction costs. We should talk more about non-technical implications of these improvements. What does it mean for an average shop-owner or Bitcoin user?

Peter Šurda (Bitcoin economist and Bitmessage core developer): I don’t hold any particular opinion on the state of Bitcoin. It will develop someway.

UASF/Segwit - Preferred Technical Solution for Bitcoin

What version of Bitcoin do you think will win? Can there exist more than one version long-term? How can it impact Bitcoin ecosystem?

MK: I am sure Bitcoin core is the winner and the reason is because it has by far the most intelligence gathered there. Those who have built and maintained the projects since many years have earned priceless experience.

MJ: I have little insight into what each camp is capable of doing and what they plan to do in various scenarios that can occur. I prefer UASF/SegWit solution but I’m preparing for any other outcome.

Technically it can, of course. However economic viability of two or more bitcoins is questionable long-term.

I guess it would be a mix of positive and negative impacts. Positive in that heated “debate” between the two camps would probably finally fade out and each camp could focus on proving their solution in real life. Negative impacts would include general confusion and worsening of Bitcoin’s perception, price drop/volatility, additional work and resources needed for necessary adjustments and more…

JB: I have no idea.

I think right now all options are open. I believe there won’t be an agreement on unlimited blocks, so if the part of the community that wants unlimited blocks wants them, they should not wait and they should fork off the network rather sooner than later.

I don’t fear hard fork too much, we will eventually see which version
wins. A hard fork carries most of its users.

What solution (UASF, Segwit, Segwit2x,…) do you prefer (if any) and why? Or you don’t care at all…

MK: I support SegWit and Bip 149 as well as Bip 148 (UASF). SegWit2x might be a useful tool to help miners not to lose face and activate SegWit. But I am sure it will fail with it’s hard fork attempts.

MJ: I prefer UASF/SegWit and that is what Bitcoin ATM (www.mojbitcoin.sk) is currently signaling and is prepared to follow after August 1st.

JB: Segwit is useful for other things besides scaling, so I prefer any solution that implements Segwit or any transaction malleability solution. Other than that, I think that Bitcoin scaling is a non-issue. We will soon have Rootstock sidechain that is scalable (it does not even depend on Segwit), there are working Lightning network implementations. I would not have a problem with larger blocks either. Whatever works.

Cena bitcoinu prevýši 500 000 dolárov do troch rokov. McAfee sa stavil

John McAfee, zakladateľ rovnomenného antivírusového( 🙂 ) softvéru a najnovšie šéf krypto-ťažiarskej spoločnosti MGT Capital Investments, rád šokuje verejnosť svojimi ráznymi vyhláseniami. Cena bitcoinu prevýši 500 000 dolárov do troch rokov podľa neho a ochotne o to uzatvára stávky.

Cena bitcoinu prevýši 500 000 dolárov

Naposledy pred pár mesiacmi avizoval, že kryptomeny prinesú v budúcnosti okrem iného zánik centrálnych bánk. “Je to ako Pandorina skrinka, ktorá už bola otvorená. Nikdy nevrátite myšlienku naspäť do krabice. A keď príde, FED zmizne.”

Ani McAfee neodolal šialenstvu okolo ICO, pokušeniu zblbnúť nových krypto priaznivcov a zvezeniu sa na vlne zakladania shitcoinov. Ten jeho nesie originálny názov McAfee coin (mimochodom, autor týchto riadkov musel počas načítavania uvedenej internetovej stránky natvrdo reštartovať počítač).

Podstatne väčší rozruch než jeho žetón vyvolali v predchádzajúcich hodinách slová o budúcej cene bitcoinu. Dolárová hodnota bitcoinu dosiahne podľa neho 500 000 Usd do troch rokov.

Nevedno, po koľkej fľaši whisky sedel John na twitteri, alebo či ide len o skrytú formu propagácie Jihanovej verzie bitcoinu. Podľa McAfeeho každý jeho matematický model počíta s cenou bitcoinu na úrovni viac ako dvoch miliónov dolárov do troch rokov.

Zároveň zdôrazňuje, že hovorí o Jihanovom forku bitcoinu. “Bude jedinou verziou bitcoinu, kde budú peniaze.” Jednu vec Johnovi uprieť nemožno: vie, ako upútať pozornosť.

 

Bitcoin padá. Prinesú zmeny v kryptomene možnosť lacného nákupu?

Pripravované technologické zmeny a hroziace rozdelenie bitcoin siete od augusta môže mať veľký vplyv na cenu bitcoinu a ostatných kryptomien. Arthur Hayes z Bitmexu sa zamýšľa nad dôsledkami jednotlivých možností a dôležitými míľnikmi v kalendári traderov.

Nervozita stúpa a prináša zvýšenú volatilitu

14. júl – od tohto dňa môžu ťažiari, peňaženky a ostatné uzly sťahovať BTC1 softvér (Segwit2x) a testovať. “Očakávajte výrazný nárast volatility po tomto dátume až do 1. augusta.” Zvýšená volatilita začala už niekoľko dní predtým poklesom ceny z 2500 na 2200 Usd a v týchto dňoch pokračuje ďalším prepadom pod 2000 Usd.

Obchodníci preferujú istotu pred chaosom

21. júl – Ťažiari môžu začať signalizovať Segwit2x. Ak situácia bude nasvedčovať tomu, že 80 % hranica bude ľahko dosiahnuteľná, Hayes predpokladá rast ceny bitcoinu. “Rely úľavy bude intenzívna, keďže všetkým odľahne, že rozdelenie siete v dôsledku UASF nenastane.”

Ak % hashrate signalizujúce Segwit2x bude príliš nízke, a bude to vyzerať, že 80 % sa za ďalší týždeň nedosiahne, dá sa očakávať výrazný prepad trhu. “Stále nie jasné, koľko najväčších zmenární zavedie viacero implementácii bitcoinu. Výsledkom bude, že obchodníci budú predávať bitcoin a počkajú, až sa prach usadí.”

Traderi vždy preferujú istotu pred chaosom, hoci by sa z toho chaosu mohol zrodiť lepší bitcoin.

Ak percento signalizovaného hashrate nebude ani výrazné, ani nízke, trh sa prepadne, no traderi si zachovajú vieru v úspešné aktivovanie Segwit2x.

Bitcoin padá. Prinesú zmeny v kryptomene možnosť lacného nákupu?

Možnosť nákupu lacného bitcoinu

29. júl – do tohto dátumu musí byť Segwit2x v tzv. uzamknutej fáze, potom budú mať ťažiari 336 blokov na aktiváciu. Tá musí prebehnúť najneskôr 1. augusta. “Zlyhanie aktivácie vyústi do armagedonu,” nazdáva sa Hayes.

Ak budú zmenárne jasne vysvetľovať ako chcú zvládnuť rozdelenie siete alebo hard fork bitcoinu, traderi sa nemusia hromadne zbavovať kryptomeny. Laická verejnosť sa bude čudovať čo toto všetko znamená. Nemajú šajnu čo je to rozdelenie siete, hard fork alebo BIP. Iba si nechcú nechať ujsť ďalšiu príležitosť rýchlo zbohatnúť cez internet.

“S padajúcou cenou bitcoinu sa budú čudovať, čo sa to deje. V momente, keď mainstreamové médiá začnú vysvetľovať prekérnu situáciu, v akej sa bitcoin nachádza, budú odkladať ďalšie nákupy a zbavovať sa skôr nakúpených množstiev.”

Môžu sa objaviť príležitosti na nákup bitcoinu na podhotených úrovniach pár dní pred 29. júlom v očakávaní vianočného zázraku.

1. august – Ak zlyhá Segwit2x, objaví sa možnosť až štyroch rôznych implementácií bitcoinu.

Ak UASF neuspeje, cena bitcoinu by už 29. júla mala začať padať. To bude znamenať výbornú príležitosť pre hard fork Jihanových veľkoblolárov. Ak títo uspejú, bitcoin rýchlo vymaže predchádzajúce straty a prekoná 3000 dolárov.

UASF sa prebije

BIP148 bude mať menej ako 51 % hashrate siete, no dosť na to, aby bol rešpektovaný. V tom prípade tu budú štyri verzie bitcoinu – BIP148, nový POW BIP148, pôvodný bitcoin a hardforknutý bitcoin. Bude na používateľoch a špekulantoch, ktorej variante budú dôverovať, respektívne na ktorého koňa vsadia.

UASF ihneď uspeje

Zmenárne nebudú mať v tomto prípade žiadnu motiváciu podporovať pôvodný bitcoin. Jihan sa ukľudní a upustí od hard forku.

“V takomto prípade sa cena bitcoinu odrazí od dna, ktoré bude určite pod 2000 Usd a možno dokonca pod 1000 Usd. Cena sa s ľahkosťou prekĺzne cez 3000 a rýchlo bude smerovať k 5 000 Usd.”

Momentálna intenzita prepadu ceny BTC/USD nasvedčuje tomu, že lichotivých 1000 Usd nemusí byť iba nesplniteľným prianím investorov, odkladajúcich nákupy na časy paniky.

Cena Bitcoinu prechádza konsolidáciou, ostatné kryptomeny padajú prudko nadol

Pár mesiacov trvajúce nákupné šialenstvo na trhu s kryptomenami sa skončilo. Ako to už na špekulatívnom trhu chodí, po prudkom vzostupe ceny prichádza pád. Cena altcoinov sa voči doláru alebo euru prepadla za ostatné dni aj o niekoľko desiatok percent.

Symbolom praskajúcej ICO kryptobubliny sa stal Ether, no panika sa nevyhla ani Dashu, Zcash, či Moneru. Výpredaj alternatívnych kryptomien a útek do fiatu alebo iných aktív (napríklad zlato a striebro sa nachádza na zaujímavo nízkych úrovniach) postihol aj Bitcoin, keďže ten je hlavnou bránou do nekryptosveta. No zďaleka nie tak výrazne ako ostatné kryptomeny. K altcoinom s relatívne miernym dopadom patrí aj Litecoin.

Pozrime sa teda ako vyzerá graf páru BTC/USD a čo sa z neho dá vyčítať. V prvom rade vidieť, že cena bitcoinu sa nachádza v konsolidačnom stave, ktorý ohraničuje rekordné maximum 3000 USD a následné minimum swingu na 2046 USD (Bitfinex). Prípadne o niečo tesnejšie a lokálnejšie maximum a minimum 2780 USD, resp. 2208.

Cena Bitcoinu prechádza konsolidáciou, ostatné kryptomeny padajú prudko nadol

Pohľad na rastúcu trendlajnu, začínajúcu 25. marca 2017, naznačuje jej nedávne prelomenie nadol a možné starosti býkov. Okrem toho zhruba v rovnakom mieste a čase bol prelomený 50-dňový exponenciálny pohyblivý priemer, ktorý veľa špekulantov považuje za indikátor aktuálneho trendu.

Ak teda pripustíme možnosť hlbšej korekcie ceny bitcoinu, je dobré sa pozrieť na možné miesta odrazu. Prvým pomocníkom v takýchto prípadoch je fibo návrat. Prvá úroveň odrazu na 38% (2190) bola zasiahnutá predvčerom aj včera. Cena sa práve odtiaľto odrazila v oboch prípadoch nahor. Je to definitívny odraz? Nevieme. K tomu by kurz BTC/USD musel ukrajovať znova vyššie maximá. A najskôr prekonať EMA 50.

Ďalšou fibo úrovňou, ku ktorej sa cena bitcoinu môže skotúlať, je 1940 USD a potom 1690.

Pre doplnenie perspektívy treba ešte pripomenúť, že 50-týždňový priemer sa v súčasnosti nachádza na 1380 USD. Keďže vývoj ceny kryptomien je veľmi dynamický a rýchlo sa mení, pre zachytenie aktuálneho vývoja odporúčame sledovať aj facebookovú stránku Bitcoinpit.

Upozornenie: Tento článok nie je investičným ani špekulatívnym odporúčaním. Ide iba o širší a viac či menej subjektívny pohľad na vývoj ceny BTC/USD. Ak sa rozhodujete o kúpe alebo predaji bitcoinu za špekulatívnym účelom, a zvlášť s použitím finančnej páky, a riadite sa iba týmito riadkami, ste blázon. Existuje veľa konkrétnych stratégií ako obchodovať bitcoin. To však nie je predmetom tohto článku.

What is electronic money and why is it important to use cryptocurrencies?

Digital currency.. Also called electronic money, electronic currency, digital money, or e-money. It is spoken about electronic money or digital currencies a lot. Because there is a lot of kinds of them, not every digital money is as other digital money.

In this article we look at what electronic money is, what digital currencies we know, why it is important to use cryptocurrencies, and which of the cryptocurrencies most closely approximate cash.

What does electronic money mean?

Electronic money is money that is exchanged exclusively electronically. Examples include credit and debit cards, various currencies used in computer games, or the exchange of goods and services over the Internet, such as cryptocurrencies.

There are many global payment systems supporting online activities that are used by millions of people. For example, WebMoney Transfer, Skrill, Transferwise, or the most famous Paypal. Similarly, for example, the Payza online payment system allows you to convert a digital currency between accounts that are identified by e-mail addresses. Payments through these systems are accepted by thousands of online retailers and service providers around the world.

The largest and best-known decentralized digital currency is Bitcoin. In addition to this cryptocurrency, there are several hundreds to thousands of others, mostly focused on a particular purpose. In addition to a variety of digital currencies and payment systems, there are also digital currency exchanges where users exchange different currencies for others.

What digital currencies exist out there

Digital currencies can be divided into several kinds depending on what we want to explore. One of the criteria is how digital money originates and works. Most of today’s well-known e-money and payment systems are based on state currencies, which are so-called legal tender and have a monopoly position in the country of use.
The value of state currencies was once linked to commodities such as gold or silver. But this is long gone, and at present such “bad” money is covered only by the promise of the state. It can be seen also on the example of the euro, that such a currency is only a toy in the hands of the central bank and politicians.

And of those who are most interested in maintaining inflation, which devalues ​​the value of state currencies. The average duration of existence of any state currency in history is about 100 years. Current state currencies are already digital rather than physical. Just go to a bank with a demand to withdrasw a cash of higher value …

Continuous cutting off of financial freedom and increasing capital controls is linked to the sharp rise of alternative digital currencies. One of the first was e-gold. An account denominated in grams of gold allowed an immediate transfer of value to another e-gold account. In 2009, this electronic money was used by about five million people. The US government subsequently forced the operator to stop the transfers and the whole business. Because tt threatened the monopoly of the US dollar as the only state currency.

Just by coincidence (or maybe not) Bitcoin was born at this time. The first decentralized P2P digital money. Attribute of decentralization is often mentioned and for a good reason. All previous currencies had been centralized until Bitcoin’s rise. That means a specific institution, company, organization, or other entity guaranteed, and was responsible for their value. They were centralized in the hands of a few decision-makers who would always betrayed users after all.

Bitcoin is alive just because of its decentralization feature. It can not be canceled by one signature of some official or by a law. No institution, company, nor person emits Bitcoin. It is a network of interconnected computers of users. It’s the internet money.

What is electronic money and why is it important to use cryptocurrencies?

More and more governments has been talking about digital money. For example, Sweden, China, India, Russia and others. This is also related to the effort to eliminate cash in the economy. National digital currencies already exist today actually. A substantial portion of payments, including credits, loans, mortgages is executed via bank cards and online transfers.

Of course, digitization of money suits governments and banks that want to control the lives of people and thus keep an excellent track of their activities, interests, preferences. It is not needed here to expand on the fact that such information can and will be abused widely.

Why it is important to use cryptocurrencies

As already mentioned above, cryptocurrencies based on the so called “blockchain” technology, also emerged as a response to the outdated and corrupted banking system of fiat money. The state and central banks want to keep even forcibly their monopoly on money and unlimited power.

That also involves the fight against cash. They say tt is because of terrorists, drug dealers and tax evasion. But it is only a smokescreen and the usual justification of politicians in any circumcision of human freedom. Stopping cash payments and making a full transition to a cashless economy will mean more spying, collecting personal data, misusing them, and people losing virtually any control over money.

The bank may send payment or not at her own discretion or based on rules enforced by the state. Yes, paying with bank card is convenient. But the list of pros is thus fulfilled.

Your money in the bank is not really yours. You only lend them to the bank. And you run the risk that suddenly one day your account balance will be reduced by half because of the “X” or “Y” measure. No, it will not be called confiscation officially. In fact you will pay interest to the bank for a “kind opportunity” to “save” the euro, dollars, pounds at their accounts. The period of of negative interest rates is coming, as the higher rates and price of money would put the system very quickly into a sef-destruction movement. That’s why their fighting against cash. Cash can not be controlled by the state.

What is electronic money and why is it important to use cryptocurrencies? Governments want to get rid of cash. They can ban Bitcoin or Monero.

How to get off the treadmill? It’s simple. Using cash as often as it gets. If cash payments are completely displaced from the economy, which is not an easy task at all, there are free, decentralized digital currencies representing digital cash. They can also be forbidden, but such a ban will not work. Their popularity will grow even more.

Only you decide about your money when using free digital money. It is only your choice what you want to spend it for, who you send it or in what amount. You do nothing wrong and it is none of anyone’s business. It is almost tragicomic that in the 21st century, someone snoops on you over your shoulder and can see what you are doing with your money and “serves” as a payment intermediary without whom the transfer would not take place. Not to say that for this very limited “service” (if it can be called that at all), the bank often asks for an inadequate fee.

With cryptocurrencies you are your own master. Under all circumstances. In addition, it is faster, cheaper, safer and substantially more private. It only takes time and practice to learn how to handle them.

Which cryptocurrencies are like cash

The most widely distributed and currently also the most valuable decentralized cryptocurrency is Bitcoin. It is like gold among precious metals. It has been in operation since 2009, and all previous attempts by envious and ill-wishing people to get rid of this value storage have ended in failure. Bitcoin infrastructure represents the most advanced and developed infrastructure of all cryptocurrencies – exchanges, btc atms, wallets, plenty of stores accepting main cryptocurrency.

It is possible to mark Litecoin – another cryptocurrency, as the younger brother of Bitcoin. Sometimes it is called bitcoin testnet because of a very similar principles on which the oldest cryptocurrency is based on. Bitcoin developers can first try out here how the cryptocurrency would behave. Similarly to other altcoins, Litecoin’s dollar value has increased significantly over the past few months.

There is a growing demand for Litecoin as Bitcoin substitution for a payment tool thanks to the smooth running, speed and cost of transaction. Some cryptocurrency ATMs already support Litecoin payment (Cryptodiggers in Bratislava) and can be used in several stores such as Subway in Brno and Bratislava (Nivy) and Prague’s Parelni Polis.

Bitcoin and Litecoin represent so called “pseudonymous” digital currencies. These cryptos retain a certain degree of privacy while transfered. There is a permanent recording on the blockchain network where exact date, amount, and addresses of a transaction can be found. These addresses, however, can be used to link some of used addresses and historical payments already executed to trace virtually all of the transaction history. Then it is simple to link the cryptocurrency address with a specific name in the exchanger, or the bank. Bitcoin and Litecoin are therefore not anonymous cryptocurrencies, which in every case respect your privacy.

However there are other cryptocurrencies which can termed as anonymous digital money, such as Monero, Zcash and other smaller or emerging alternative digital currencies. Considering technical aspect these work on completely different principles than Bitcoin. Therefore, they are still used for specific purposes so far, and their acceptability at conventional crypto-supporters or in practical applications is very limited.