Nezaradené - BITCOIN PIT

Buuuyyy! Weekly Trades (22)

OK, I must admit it. Bitcoin keeps surprising me as a trader. The last time I wrote here about having a pause in BTC/USD trading (as would have traded it for years, yeah? 🙂 ) and expecting some weeks or months of low volatility practically disabling profitable trading. It looks like I was wrong. Yes, the volatility has decreased comparing to the crazy weeks before, but it is still possible to book some good pips in.

So what’s the current story? Looking at the Bitstamp USD chart the price has recently broken an important turning point at $120 and heading to another at $150. So this can be the target in the next days maybe weeks depending on the upmove strength. As this climb isn’t very much persuasive for me it is necessary to look carefully downstairs also. And there is strong trendline support now around $100. But for the market to attack this level I don’t know what kind of serious event would have to occur for it to come down there. Especially when you consider the recent Dwolla/Mt.Gox problem, that was quite a huge negative story and the price is up. That is telling me something. And maybe BTC just doesn’t give a fuck of this (or any) “news”.

OK, when you haven’t bought in the recent hours then do it as soon as possible. As said above my buy target (PT2) is $150, but first it should cut through $140 (PT1). The stop-loss set up at $127.50. And that is also the sell-point with the stop-loss at $130.50. If triggered my first profit target is $124 and the second at $123 (let’s be careful here, the trend is up). Good luck!

Weekly Trades (19)

An overall situation in the BTCUSD market is a quite tricky right now. It is a long term range trading between a high of 260 USD and low at 50 USD. The price broke down into a medium-term bear market last week, but weekend recovery suggests we can see some small up move again before another downfall leg later. You know that saying ‘what can’t go up must come down’…

Here are my points for this week:

Buy 119.40 SL 114.00 PT1: 124.80 PT2: 135.00 PT3: 146.00
Sell 106.70 SL 115.30 PT1: 93.00 PT2: 81.00 PT3: 71.00 PT4: 60.00

Summing up the last week trading results: +22%

Buy PT1: +5%
Sell PT1: +4%, PT2: +12%, PT3: +17%

If you let a profit run with the falling market and would close on Friday afternoon (which I would recommend for at latest), you could book even 33% return (supposing 85 USD target for example) only for that one sell off.
Also bear in mind that buy and sell points I give out must be clearly broken on the chart, a spike candle (I watch 15 min. or 200 tick chart for an entry) is not enough, market has to clearly close above (below) this point. That’s why setting up a pending orders and leave computer is comfortable, but not always leading to a successful entry.

Weekly Trades (18)

It’s Sunday again and that means the time to look at the chart and plan possible trades for the coming week. The price has been sitting around the 30’s level for a few days, what’s more interesting there were three inside daily candles so a possible break out could bring a somewhat stronger move, especially when you realize it is a start of a new week.

The market is currently at a quite significant point, which should imply some nice price action ahead. A break above could have attack at least the last week’s maximum. However there’s one thing worrying me: similar break above happened last week and it couldn’t reach even my first profit target. So I’m cautious now. On the other side after a possible failed break above 136 we could see a strong sell-off down to 105 at least.
With that said let’s set up the buy and sell points (Mt.Gox chart).
Buy 137.00, SL 130.90, PT1 144.50 PT2 160 PT3 175
Sell 127.40, SL 134, PT1 122.00 PT2 112 PT3 106

A look back at the last week’s trades:
The buy order was triggered, but hadn’t reached any of the targets. However, even when the market wasn’t being marching higher as steeply as in the previous weeks, you could book a nice profit of more than 20% when closing around the max. Of course, such a timely exit would had been not according to my strategy, but hey, taking profits is a more individual thing than opening a position. I personally like to leave the market some space for moving up or down even with a chance of ending at B/E or a loss. That was the last week’s case (BE).

Weekly trades (17)

My electronic devices are not working properly at this time and even writing these lines is driving me crazy so just a quick trading update without much unnecessary words. Let the numbers speak…

This week trading plan:

Sell point: 109.50 SL: 132.00 PT1: 101.00 PT2: 86.50 PT3: 72.00 PT4: 56.00
Buy point: 133.00 SL: 109.80 PT1: 175.00 PT2: 185.00 PT3: 194.00

Last week trading result:
Sell PT1= 5%, PT2= 22%, PT3= 43%
Buy PT1= 11%, PT2= 18%, PT3= 33%

Can you see those numbers?!! If you’d been ultra cautious, you could book 16% in a less than one week. If you’d let both trades run to the highest recommended profit take targets, you could gain 76%! Without even 1 lost satoshi. Guys, this market is a speculator’s heaven. I should probably really start to trade this baby!:)

Weekly Trades (16)

A four consecutive red days + yesterday’s close below 100$ all indicate that a possible bounce of the low doesn’t have to be so persuasive as it looks according to the Friday’s daily candle. If you’d look carefully at the chart you can’t find more than two consecutive red days from the start of this rally in December/January. Also the 60% retracement level from the top has been breached, that most traders consider to be a last barrier for corrections in trending markets.

Now the real trading can start. It is not hard to book some good profits, when the market is increasing by dozens of percent day by day. Every monkey trained in pushing a right buy and sell button can be profitable in those conditions.

So what to expect in the following days? I’m still a long-term bull, not so much in the short-term outlook. No market however strong fundamentally can grow exponentially forever. A steep up move is followed by a periods of consolidation or a sudden and big falls. BTC/USD has experienced strong increases since January that resulted into the sudden fall last week. Now it could have to be a time for some rest.

A brief review of the last week trades:
Buy TP1= 22%
Buy TP2= 35%
Buy TP3= 70%

If you’d taken the sell trades, they would be profitable also:
Sell TP1= 1,5%
Sell TP2= 5%

Here are the trading points for the coming week (based on the Bitstamp data):
Buy: 100.20 SL: 94.80 TP1:111.70 TP2:118.70 TP3: 133.20
Sell: 89.80 SL: 95.00 TP1:85.20 TP2: 70.00 TP3: 51.00

My personal bias is down, but let the market decide the direction. Do not forget, trading is not about foreseeing the future price, but to be prepared and react on what the market is offering to you. Respect it.