Category: Špekulujeme a investujeme

China, It’s Your Turn! Bitcoin Trading Points (6)

You know those moments you have opened short position because there is no other way market can go and after several weeks of stand-off you are nerved out and tired of choppy market so you finally close it at break-even just to see the price crash down another day with your planned profit hit in a few minutes after the break?

Well, that happens sometimes. And also closing the trade with huge loss (if not the margin call) happens in these cases when the trend reverses. That’s why it’s good to use stop-losses (physical or mental).

 

China New Year’s holiday is here and many traders expect fervently whether the PBOC will make its devaluation move during these days. Either way the price action looks bearish and I can’t see any reason for opening any substantial longs. However I wouldn’t be surprised first to see some buying shots during the week and Friday/Saturday/Sunday some massive sell-out

as has often been the case.

 

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Buy: 378                  Stop-loss: 373                      Take Profit: 388; 392; 398

 

Sell: 369                           SL: 374                        TP: 359; 349; 335

 

Trading forex scamcoins?
Strong: really hard to pick even mildly strong:) Maybe Jpy, Gbp
Weak: Aud, Cad

Indices:
DAX: still in the choppy zone, looks more bearish now and about to see 9000.
DJ: choppy, the least bearish of all 3 indexes followed here.
Nikkei: bearish below magic number 16666, bullish above.

Sell Out. Bitcoin Trading Points (5)

Sell: now or up to $380.                    Take Profit: 350; 335; 315
Buy:380                     SL: 375                       TP: 385; 390

 
The BTC/USD price downtrend was confirmed last week with the Thursday daily candle sell signal after several days of consolidation. And although the Friday’s candle formed a doji suggesting some buying pull-back, this scenario looks off the table currently as the price keeps pushing down.

 

A nice downtrend channel has formed there with some minor support/resistance in the middle (now somewhere around $350). If broken we can see a brief spike to $310 very soon.

 

tw5

 
Trading fiat scamcoins?
Strong: Usd, Cad
Weak: Jpy, Eur

 

Indices
DAX: choppy zone, somewhat bullish
DJ: bullish

Spôsobí Čína náhly prepad ceny Bitcoinu?

Nedávne pohyby ceny Bitcoinu boli najmä o Číne. Väčšina obchovaného objemu Bitcoinu sa realizuje v Yuane, mene čeliacej vyhliadkam na rýchlu a zbesilú devalváciu. BTC/USD pár zamrzol v zóne nízkej volatility v ostatných týždňoch, čo mnohých obchodníkov privádza do zúfalstva. Čo nás teda čaká?

 

Arthur Hayes, šéf platformy Bitmex obchodujúcej Bitcoin futures kontrakty, predpovedá, že “Čínska centrálna banka pošle CNY kade ľahšie jeho devalvovaním o 5 – 10%.” Podľa neho sa tak stane počas blížiacich sa sviatkov Nového roka, keď neexistuje riziko okamžitého odlivu kapitálu.

 

“Ak sa pozrieme na históriu monetárnej politiky, centrálne banky a vlády radi zavádzajú závažné zmeny v menovej politike počas víkendov alebo bankových prázdnin. Čínska ľudová banka má vcelku šťastie, sviatky Nového roka znamenajú výbornú príležitosť na masívnu devalváciu Yuanu a zníženie úrokových sadzieb bez hrozby odlivu kapitálu. Čínsky bankový systém a kapitálové trhy budú zatvorené v období 7.-13. februára. Počas tohto obdobia sa celý tamojší finančný svet zastaví. Centrálna banka tak bude mať neomedzenú možnosť usporiadať beztrestný hon na driemajúci kapitál.”

 

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A čo to všetko znamená pre BTC/USD špekulátorov? Pozrite sa na graf (nie z mojej dielne) a premyslite. Dobre, pomôžem vám, ak by to nebolo zrejmé. Prvá fáza devalvácie Yuanu bola sprevádzaná rýchlym zošupom ceny BTC/USD nasledovaným dlhodobejšou (dva mesiace) konsolidáciou ceny v rozmedzí 50 USD. Potom prišla obrovská nákupná rely.

 

Druhá fáza devalvácie Yuanu už začala, hoci nie v nejakej masívnej miere. Ak má Hayes pravdu, najväčšie škody v tejto etape by mali prísť počas druhého februárového týždňa. To by mohlo stlačiť cenu BTC/USD na úroveň 330-350 dolárov alebo aj menej v prípade bleskurýchleho špiku. Potom by mohla prísť konsolidačná fáza a potom… veď viete: až na Mesiac! Ibaže by nie.

Will China Flash Crash Bitcoin’s Price?

The recent Bitcoin price swings has been only about China. Most of the bitcoin trading volume is executed in Chinese yuan, a currency facing prospects of fast and furious devaluation. The BTC/USD pair has been stucked in low price change range over the past weeks and this non-volatility has been driving a lots of traders crazy. What’s next in store?

 

Arthur Hayes, the CEO of bitcoin futures exchange Bitmex, predicts “the PBOC will schlong the CNY by devaluing it 5%-10%.” He believes it’s going to happen during the coming Chinese New Year holiday when there’s no immediate capital outflow risk.

“Looking through monetary history, central banks and governments like to unveil massive monetary policy changes during the weekend or bank holidays. The PBOC is quite lucky; the Chinese New Year holiday presents an excellent opportunity to massively devalue the Yuan and cut interest rates without the threat of capital flight. The Chinese banking system and capital markets will be closed from February 7-13. During Chinese new year, all things financial come to a halt. The PBOC has free reign to duck hunt dormant capital with impunity.”

 

So what does this all mean for the BTC/USD speculators? Have a look at the chart (not my production) below and figure it out. Ok, I can help you if it wouldn’t be obvious. The first yuan devaluation stage were accompanied with the sudden BTC/USD price decline followed with longer-term (2 months) price consolidation in $50 range. Then the monster Bitcoin buying rally came.

The second stage has already started though not on any massive scale. If Hayes is right the largest damage in this phase should come during the 2nd week of February. That could push BTC/USD down to the $330-350 level or even lower with a brief spike. Then a consolidation period and then…you know it already. To the moon! (Or not)

A Bigger Picture-Between The Two Stones. Bitcoin Trading (4)

Buy: 407.34 (Bitfinex)              Stop-loss: 402                  Profit Take: 412; 417; 424;

Sell: 396                                              SL: 401                               PT: 372; 355; 335

 

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Trading fiat scamcoins?
Somewhat strong: Usd, Gbp, Aud
Weakest: Eur, Jpy
So you want to sell Eur/Usd, Eur/Aud and buy Gbp/Jpy, Usd/Jpy, maybe Aud/Jpy

Indices:
DAX looks a bit bullish right now, but in the choppy zone up to 10000.
DJ also somewhat bullish.