Author: bitcoinfly

Let’s get back to work! Boring summer weeks are over hopefully and BTC/USD is starting to move nicely for booking some profit of a rise or fall.
What’s the big picture? The long term market (weekly chart) is still in a consolidation phase with clearly marked high ($259) and low ($45) point. And it will stay so for a considerable chunk of time. Looking at the daily chart picture starts to be more interesting. After breaking $100 barrier two weeks ago even the biggest bears should have to reconsider their trading intentions now. Especially when they take into account breaking 61,8% fibo retracement of the last down move last week (though it’s very questionable how far the pair’s price action respects these technical indicators, right?:). I’m not personally a fan of the “oh, let’s draw the line here” or “this indicator suits there” stuff as I look just at the price action, but some indicators are helpful sometimes. Fibo is one of them.
So what is the current price action telling me? After breaking up $100 level (well, more important was $80 level) BTC/USD should attack $120 and maybe $130 in its current steady rise. These are the most significant turning points in my chart. Action at these numbers will determine what would come next.
With that said let’s pick up the trading points (Bitstamp) for the coming week:
Buy: Now or anywhere down to 109; stop loss at 106; profit take: 119.00, 124.00 (if you’re bold:) )
Sell: 108; SL: 113; PT: 105; 103

A hot summer days use to be boring for trading. The BTC/USD pair has oscillated between $ 85-100 for the last two weeks. That means the market is still in the downtrend technically, though current price action doesn’t imply we will see any powerful sell-off in the near future. As stated in the last post, $100 level is a border line separating current downtrend from expected (coming sooner or later) uptrend.

Trading points (Bitstamp chart) for the coming week:
Buy point:  Now or above 93.00   SL: 88.00    TP: 99.00; 105.00
Sell point:  87.70   SL: 92.00    TP: 85.30;  83.00

We had some nice move last week, although not according to my anticipated direction. But as you can see, the trigger (buy, sell) entry points are working well and realizing profits (closing position) is always more of a personal thing.
So how does the bigger picture looks right now looking at the Mt.Gox chart? (Btw, what the fuck is with the Bitstamp stream?) Nothing has changed and the market is still in a bear condition, though it has risen a lot in recent days. But look at the Friday’s daily candle with that long upper shadow. That is a clear sell signal especially when you consider it to happen at the important $100 resistance zone. But it must still have  to be confirmed by the price selling off below $88. First attempt yesterday wasn’t successful, but I think it will pass through finally. Of course this sell signal would become invalidated when the price breaks above $105.
With that in mind let’s write down the attack plan for the coming week:

Sell point: 94.00  (SL:100.00)   PT: 89.00; 86.00; 82.00
Buy point: 100.00  (SL: 94.00)   PT: 110.00;  115.00

All right. Let’s get back to work! Again, nothing much has changed since a few weeks ago, except the fact price break below $100 is now confirmed as well as the downtrend.
That’s why my bias is still down. Sellpoint for this week (Bitstamp): 87.5 with stop-loss at 90.50. Potential profit target around 80.00. If you want to buy then do so when the price break above 90.50 with 87.5 stoploss. Profit target 96.